The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) released its spring forecast for 23 countries, projecting that Bulgaria’s economy will achieve 2% growth in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, and 2.4% in 2028. The report indicates that despite energy price shocks related to geopolitical tensions, most economies in Central, East, and Southeast Europe are maintaining resilient, though slowing, growth. For Bulgaria, the forecast predicts inflation will fall from 4.5% in 2026 to 3.7% in 2027 and 3.0% in 2028, while the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize near 3.6% to 3.7% over the same period.
The Institute warns that prolonged instability in the Middle East, leading to sustained high oil prices, poses a risk to Eastern Europe. A key concern highlighted by the lead author is the threat to industrial competitiveness due to rising labor costs outpacing productivity gains, coupled with competition from China and declining foreign direct investment. For the EU member states in the region, the average economic growth is forecasted at 2.3% in 2026 and 2027, a slight revision downward from previous projections.
This growth rate is anticipated to significantly exceed that of the Euro Area in both years. However, the Institute cautions that in a worst-case scenario, growth
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These forecasts provide a clearer picture of Bulgaria’s economic trajectory over the next few years.